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For a dictatorship to last long, it must not only have the means of surveillance and terror. It must also be able to convince the people it enslaves that their future, in a regime of freedom, would not be sufficiently better to justify taking the risk of rebellion.
Dictatorships have always done everything possible to discredit any neighbouring society with which their subjects could be compared. Thus, Nazi Germany spent its time, before starting the war, denouncing the weaknesses of the European and American democracies and ridiculing their leaders; it must be admitted that the latter provided it with good arguments to do so. The Soviet Union did the same, for seventy years, describing to the point of caricature the racism, inequality, misery and corruption that prevailed and still prevails in American society.
Today, the Beijing government’s determination to get its hands on Hong Kong and destroy the almost democratic regime left there by the British, as well as its repeated desire to regain control of Taiwan, is not only explained by the desire to take back part of the national territory and the historical heritage that has found refuge there; it is also the desire to make a democratic regime disappear on Chinese soil, which could inspire reformists or revolutionaries in other parts of the Middle Kingdom.
What has been happening in Moscow, and the war that Russia has just declared, for the past few years is also inspired by this: of course, there is the will not to let the former republics of the Soviet Union escape Moscow’s control (as Azerbaijan, which has now become part of the Turkish orbit, has very skilfully done); but it is above all the will not to let them be won over by democratic pruritus, which could give the Russian people ideas. This has resulted in the takeover of Belarus and Kazakhstan. Now it is the turn of Ukraine, a fledgling but real democracy that is so culturally close to Russia.
Modern dictatorships can no longer prevent their people from knowing what is happening elsewhere; they can no longer deprive their middle classes of the hope of having the same rights to consume, to own, to make a fortune, to criticise, to speak freely, as the citizens of neighbouring democracies; nor can they prevent them from understanding that it is good to live in a democracy, that two democracies never go to war with each other, and that it is in a democracy, in spite of all the faults of this system, that each person is able to realise his or her full potential. Dictatorships must therefore discredit democracies at all costs, and demonstrate that they are incapable of ensuring full employment and the well-being of those who live in them, and even sabotage their economies, even if it is to the detriment of those of their own companies that trade with them.
This concerns us to the highest degree: for if there is a counter-model for these dictatorships, a democratic, harmonious, free entity, where it is, for many, good to live, it is indeed the European Union. It is therefore vitally unbearable for any dictator that the European Union should succeed, and it is to be expected that it will become the main target of Moscow and Beijing, which see it as the absolute counter-model that must not be allowed to flourish.
At first, in the Union, we will not be attacked militarily, but we will be prevented from coming to the aid of those who are, and they will try to destroy the credibility of our political, economic and social models. This is already underway. With increasingly massive means.
And what about us? What are we doing in the face of these attacks, which have only just begun? We are doing nothing. What have we planned to do to counter the provocations, the sabotage, the rumours, the false news, which are likely to increase in the coming years? Not much. Not economically, not institutionally, not culturally, not media-wise, not militarily. And let’s not count on the Americans to protect us: subject to the same attacks, they will have enough to do to defend themselves.
Democracy is our most precious asset. We wrongly take it for granted. It is not. A considerable number of people have an interest in our failure. Let us wake up. Let us unite.
j@attali.com