In France, the season of political platforms has begun. We can rejoice in this. We have seen too many presidential election campaigns with platforms cobbled together in the final weeks, and presidents elected without any idea of what they should accomplish, immediately forgetting the few promises they might have made, to manage day by day the intoxication of their new power, dazzled by protocol, fascinated by international meetings, and limiting their exercise of domestic power to more or less capricious appointments.
What I am writing here may seem harsh. Yet this is what has happened: since François Mitterrand’s second term, no president has been elected with the ambition of carrying out major reforms. None have done so. Even if the three presidents still alive can claim a few significant achievements, mainly in the social sphere, in matters of social norms, labor flexibility, and business creation.
However, no major transformation has touched the core issues, and the country is suffering as a result. Admittedly, France still possesses immense assets that make it one of the most privileged countries on the planet: a functioning democracy, a rule of law that is almost perfectly upheld, a secularism so precious in these difficult times, and one of the highest standards of living in the world.
But all of this is unraveling. Our traditional industries—from aviation to automobiles, from luxury goods to defense—are anxiously watching a Chinese tsunami approach. Our startups are struggling to secure the private funding they need, due to the lack of funded pension plans. Our hospital system is faltering. Our agriculture is faltering. Our schools are in decline. Social mobility is no longer a reality. A quarter of the French population is on the brink of poverty. Hundreds of thousands of children are abandoned to child welfare services and fall into prostitution. Our balance of payments is barely in equilibrium, if not in deficit; our trade balance is uncertain, as we now import more agricultural products than we export. Despite all the promises, the public deficit does not fall below 5%; public debt has reached 3.5 trillion, or 115% of GDP, and it cannot be emphasized enough that it is now out of control.
Not that France could default (it has the capacity to raise taxes and national savings sufficient to reassure all lenders), but because the cost of servicing the debt will now eat away at all room for maneuver.
Likely, the 2027 elections will take place amid the same blindness as the previous ones, for I stand by a simple observation: all public spending pays for wages, pensions, and income for public contract holders; it all constitutes income for the country’s residents—and first and foremost for voters and their families. And since it accounts for 58% of GDP, it is not unreasonable to think that more than half of voters depend on public spending.
We cannot expect them to vote against their own interests. No more in 2027 than before will they do anything to reduce their income through their votes, regardless of which party has their support.
Public debt will continue to rise. And the jaws of the trap will close in on France: If GDP grows by 2.5% and the interest rate remains at 4%, public debt will reach €5.58 trillion in 2035 and the annual interest burden will jump from €65 billion to €223 billion. If the interest rate reaches 6%, the debt stock will exceed €6 trillion in 2035, and the annual interest burden will reach €360 billion—more than four times the national education budget, more than seven times the defense budget, and 20% of France’s current GDP. The share of public spending in GDP will rise from 57.2% in 2025 to about 61% in 2035, primarily due to the explosion in interest costs. If nominal growth is lower (1% to 1.5%, which is plausible given low inflation and sluggish real growth), the share of spending could exceed 67% of GDP: nearly two-thirds of voters will derive all or a significant portion of their income from public spending. This would be an unprecedented level for France in peacetime. The government will then be forced to make massive cuts to hiring, pensions, benefits, and investments in schools and hospitals—something no democratic government will be able to do.
This is what lies in store for us, inescapably. Because we can debate anything, except arithmetic.
If, in 2027, as in every presidential election since 1981, the presidential campaign does not take these issues very seriously, if the elected president proposes no structural reforms, if, as in every presidential election since 1974, he does not make reducing public spending a central objective, and if he is concerned only with the immediate interests of his voters, France will sink.
The necessary reforms are clear: drastically reduce the highest pensions, both in terms of amount and length of service. Establish a significant supplementary pension plan based on capital accumulation and use the savings thus generated to invest in cutting-edge companies. Significantly reduce the various layers of bureaucracy. Focus benefits on the most disadvantaged. Put an end to universal third-party payment and the notion that everything and anything is free, which only benefits the wealthy. Increase indirect taxes, starting with VAT, and reduce direct taxes for everyone except the most privileged.
Will the French be wise enough to elect someone who promises them difficult times ?