Considering only the certain events, 2024 will be an exceptional year for France, Europe and the world. And even more so, considering the events that are still uncertain.
Over the next 12 months, more than 2/3 of the world’s electorate will be called upon to vote in more or less free elections.
In Europe, elections will be held for the European Parliament and in Portugal, Belgium, the UK, Austria, Finland, Lithuania, Croatia and Ukraine. Elsewhere in the world, votes will be cast in the USA, Mexico, Russia, Iran, Indonesia, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, South Korea, Taiwan, Bhutan, Cambodia, Azerbaijan, Senegal, Algeria, Comoros, Namibia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Burkina Faso, Rwanda, Togo, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, El Salvador, Panama, Dominican Republic, Mexico and Uruguay. Legislative elections will be held in the Solomon Islands, Palau and Tuvalu (whose 11,000 inhabitants have already negotiated climate asylum in Australia).
In many of these countries, the election results are more or less predictable:
In Great Britain, Labour’s victory seems a foregone conclusion; in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to be re-elected; in Pakistan, as in Bangladesh, the forthcoming elections are unlikely to alter the balance of power; in Indonesia, Prado Subianto, former rival and candidate supported by outgoing President Joko Widodo (who cannot stand for re-election and whose popularity remains very high), is likely to win the next presidential election, especially as he has chosen the outgoing President’s son as his running mate; in Mexico, it now seems likely that the mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Scheinbaum, backed by the outgoing President, a socialist, will win against another woman, Xóchitl Gálvez, who has rallied around her all the opposition from the right and center. In Iran, Russia and many other countries, elections are nothing more than a masquerade imposed by terror. In several of the countries mentioned above, elections may not be held…
Among the uncertain elections, the 3 most important will be the presidential elections in the USA and Taiwan, as well as the European elections to renew the European Parliament. In the United States, whoever wins, the result will usher in a period of great chaos: lasting chaos, if Donald Trump is elected and implements his insane program, which aims to install a veritable dictatorship; temporary chaos if, after his defeat, his supporters unleash a civil war better prepared than in 2020. In any case, in 2024, the United States will be more inward-looking than ever, at a time when Europe in particular needs its support. A Europe that could find itself, in June 2024, with a European Parliament that is much less homogeneous than the current one, and therefore much weaker; with a far right that could, along with the populists, become the 3rd party in this Parliament. In Taiwan, everything will be decided between 3 candidates: the favorite William Lai, rather hostile to any rapprochement with Beijing, will have to beat Hou Yu-ih, who wants to protect peace at all costs, and the unpredictable Ko Wen-je, who has the support of young people.
Other (almost) certain events, with established regularity, include the Olympic Games in Paris, and world or continental championships in a wide range of sports.
Other certainties include the continuation of climate disruption, which will become increasingly visible and cause more and more disasters on every continent. And famine, which will no doubt continue to affect more than 500 million of the planet’s inhabitants. And the collapse of the education system in many countries, which will undoubtedly become increasingly visible.
At the same time, conflicts with uncertain outcomes will weigh heavily on the fate of hundreds of millions of people. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza could both end or spread, as could other conflicts in Somalia, Yemen and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
And so many other unknowns… Iran and North Korea may both declare themselves nuclear powers, upsetting the geopolitical balance in their regions. Meanwhile, the Chinese People’s Army will be on the prowl, all the closer to Taiwan that the elections will have brought to power an enemy of rapprochement.
Whatever happens, and even if most of these elections seem to be leading to an almost general status quo, we have entered a zone of great turbulence, in which imbalances are accelerating without the mechanisms for rebalancing being put in place.
Some will continue to hope for a miracle from technical progress, which is also accelerating. Others, more and more numerous, will realize that the fate of humanity will depend on the actions of each and every one of us.
We already knew this at the beginning of the 20th century, and we did nothing about it. 2024 is more than ever a year of truth.