Can we still talk about the issues at stakes surrounding September? After all, the planet today is such that it will be more and more difficult to talk about « September », when the spectacle of the world is increasingly permanent, and its interaction with our own concerns ever increasing.
Nevertheless, the summer break, even though it is only a short one for most of Europeans, provides an opportunity to take stock of what awaits the world in the coming months; and especially France, even if she turns a blind eye to this.
For the world, the stakes, (which will soon be on the table of yet another useless G20) are extraordinarily high: put an end to the Syrian bloodbath, without igniting the country into a host of emirates, mostly Islamists, with diverse Islamist trends. Avoiding that the tension between the Japanese and the Chinese, through the Koreans, witnesses the birth of another tension, between the United States and Russia, which could have far more serious consequences. Viewed globally, in economics, many issues have not so far been resolved; many threats are being confirmed: protectionism is increasing everywhere; growth is slowing down, even in the most promising countries; public debt is continuing to grow in northern countries and is coming back in some countries of the South, such as Brazil. Unemployment is not reducing. Only the United States, incorrigible optimist, continues to believe that with money printing and shale gas, the crisis will soon be a thing of the past.
In Europe, they all soothe themselves by saying that it is enough to wait for the recovery to come from elsewhere in order for it to be contagious; for the recession to end and for jobs to be more numerous. Some even draw the conclusion that the efforts towards reform, the recapitalization of banks and the reduction of public debt are no longer appropriate. Therefore, see nothing, say nothing, do nothing. And all will be well.
It is nothing but an illusion: growth will not return by a hypothetical contagion alone which originated elsewhere. In addition, at the current level of recession, the debt-to-GDP ratio can only increase and will soon reach intolerable levels, not only in Greece, today in a virtual state of bankruptcy once again, but also in Spain, Portugal and France. Showing that the continuation of the current austerity strategy, with no real reforms at home in order to return to innovation and productivity, and without progress toward European integration, the very next day after the German elections, is doomed to failure. Optimism is not a policy.
For France, stakes are especially high. First, because unlike other European countries, its population is increasing, which means that the purchasing power per capita is decreasing when GDP growth is less than 1%, and even more so, if we take into account the increase in taxes. In other words, any likely GDP growth, will not be able to prevent the fact that every French will have less purchasing power (except for the wealthiest) for many years to come. It is therefore particularly urgent to make the best use of public money and reduce inequalities. For this to happen, there is an urgent need to focus social assistance aid on those who need it most, training on the unemployed, balance the pension system and not tolerate excessive budget deficits, through significant reduction of the waste of public money.
All these involve considerable reforms, whose list has been well-documented, and which, if not undertaken in September, will not be undertaken in subsequent years either, due to the succession of elections.
For the political class, the choice is thus simple: either we reform in the fall of 2013, if possible by consensus with most of the governing parties and trade unions, or we allow a cataclysm to take place for the 2017 presidential elections. This is what is at stake this September. For both the right and the left wing. So? Will they dare to be content with their petty rivalries? Will they dare to do nothing?
j@attali.com