President Sarkozy still has three years of mandate, in a difficult and
exciting environment. Difficult because deficits still yet to come are
limiting significantly his range of action facing the crisis and the
unemployment. Exciting because he holds all institutional powers necessary
to act in face of a weak political opposition.
It is therefore important for him, as for the country, to take an ultimate
break, choose priorities, before dashing for the finish line. Not too long
of a break because time is short: for the first time in the history of
France, a President of the Republic will present himself again after only
five years of mandate, without being able to afford as François Mitterrand
and Jacques Chirac, to loose the legislative elections and then win the
presidential elections: for him, it will be all or nothing.
So two roads are opened for him: to reform for a year only, until the
regional elections and for his voters benefit only, and then navigate
downstream, to try to remain popular until the presidential elections. Or to
reform up to the last day of his mandate, relying on the maturity of the
voters to be grateful . The first choice can have him re-elected, but his
stay in power would then leave no trace. The second can have him defeated,
but he would then remain as the only reformist President since the early
1980s.
His choice will then first say a lot about his opinion on the intelligence
of the country and the gravity of the problems it faces; it will then
influence for a long time the fate of the country.
And if Nicolas Sarkozy chooses the second way, as I think he will, (by
challenge as well as conviction), he will have to focus in my opinion on
three major reform programs, and schedule them over three years, and then
explain them in detail to the country.
At first, reform public services and make them more effective and less
costly. This will go from reforming local communities that are too numerous
to reforming the judicial system (the Penitentiary, criminal procedure and
legal profession), to strengthening public services in rural areas and
sensitive neighbourhoods, reducing waste and the massive use of information
technology in central administrations.
Then dedicate much more means than today to reinforce the quality of two
strategic areas of the future, education and health; and their common
parents: research, prevention and continuing education.
Finally, obtain from public and private sectors to dive into new
technologies, (today in too much disinherison), such as new energies,
nanotechnology, biotechnology and the neurosciences, huge infrastructure and
countless new business projects.
Naturally, the President will not be able to convince the French people of
the efforts to be made in order to succeed with this program unless he
creates the conditions of their fair share and write them in a clear vision
of the place of France in Europe and the world of 2012.
Far beyond some changes in persons, it is indeed the fate of the five year
term which is at stake in the coming weeks: the major orientations of the
budget for 2010, which must translate these choices, must be adopted no
later than the 15th of July 2009.