It is fascinating to see the important place the French media have devoted
to the cabinet reshuffle announced Sunday. Yet, on history time scale, even
immediate history, soon there will be nothing left of this non-event, except
for those concerned, with frustrated or rewarded ambitions.
The same day, in Wuhan, China, Indian, Chinese and Russians gathered to
decide on a long-term strategy of alliance. The same day, the Chinese made
it clear that the G20 did not change their monetary strategy. The same day,
in the United States, Mr. Greenspan announced that if the U.S. public debt
was not reduced rapidly, interest rates could only rise and that nobody
would fund the U.S. deficit again. The same day, Ireland was considered
insolvent, the Greek prime minister spoke of spreading the repayment of the
Hellenic public debt, Portugual spoke of leaving the euro and Spain
discussed mainly about the risk of contagion for them, of such a crisis.
Various countries in Europe were beginning to wonder if the solution was not
a government of national unity.
Tomorrow, next week, next month, France will be taken in these same storms.
France will be surprised. Because their nature and magnitude were hidden.
Then, it will be understood that while the ship was threatened by thousand
and thousand icebergs, the captain was establishing the table seating plan
of his dinner. To avoid this charge, which would be fatal for him in 18
months, he must, with his government, adopt an entirely different language
and quite a different behavior.
He must:
1. Stop saying that the crisis is over, that growth is around the corner; he
must cease to be satisfied with the least bad news to shout victory, and
acknowledge that hard times are still before us. Also explain the
conflicting risks of excessive debt and deflation, the bankruptcy of banks
and their excessive profits.
2. Announce that we have to engage in major reforms, which will have no
effect for ten years. Not only the one, almost anecdotic in view of what is
at stake, of the funding of dependency, much talked about, but also those
much more important, on which everything depends: taxation, primary school,
training of the unemployed and the takeover of the leading industrial
sectors.
3. Recognize that in order to carry out these reforms, in contrast to what
is said by all governments over the past 20 years, more government is
needed, not less government. More industry and not more service. More
taxes, and not less taxes.
All this will not be easy. All this will take place. The only question is
whether this will happen after a major crisis or instead of a vast political
and social trauma.
Of course, France is rich and powerful and will resist it. But in what state
will it come out if it is not prepared?
A reshuffle, a presidential statement, a general policy speech could be a
good opportunity to say all this simply, cold, before it’s too late.