For the first time since the start of the Fifth Republic, no so-called “governing” party (i.e., one that has already governed), on either the right or the left, is in a position to put forward the name of a clear candidate for the next presidential election. Of course, there is no shortage of candidates in these parties, some of whom have already openly declared their candidacy. But none of the socialists, ecologists, centrists of many stripes or right-wing parties have really established themselves in their own camp.
On the other hand, the two most extreme parties, on both the left and the right, have recognized leaders, both of whom will be running in the presidential election for the third, if not the fourth time, and who are ready to do so, whatever the deadline.
What’s more, none of the parties, past or present, is in a position to propose a credible presidential program. Other than that, in the two extreme parties, the only ones to have already chosen an incarnation, we know that these programs will be anti-European.
We need to be aware of what this means, eighteen months from the election: all the projects, achievements and hopes of those who, for almost seventy years, have made France what it is today – a great economic, social and cultural power – are in danger of disappearing, of unravelling. Because those who are supposed to carry them further are content, for the time being, to drown in internal squabbles, to squabble over imbecilic fiscal bidding, to lose what’s left of their reputation in the defense of insufferable lobbies. Leaving the public debate to two anti-European parties.
These people are not only losing their reputations, and throwing away their personal futures. They are endangering the whole country.
And all because none of the leaders of these governing parties dare to openly take up this project, so incomplete, so unsatisfactory, yet so essential, that we call the European project. And no country has more to lose than France by calling it into question.
In the face of technological challenges, environmental threats and the appetites of the predators around us, without a strong European dynamic, French society, its economy, its jobs, its culture, its values, even its means of defense, would soon be swept away.
Do we realize that, if Europe doesn’t become much more integrated, many French companies, even if they are now globalized and have only a minority of their sales in Europe, will almost all remain dwarfs on a global scale? Do we understand that its markets will then have to open up further under the onslaught of American, Chinese, Brazilian and Indian giants? Can we imagine what will become of Germany and Italy if they are no longer tied to France? Do we realize that what the French think they will gain as consumers, they will lose as workers?
Extreme parties want voters to believe that France finances too large a share of the European budget, that it can play in the big league on its own, and that all it would take to reorient the EU is to bang the table and threaten to leave. Because they think that other countries can’t do without France. This is no longer true. Today, it’s France that can no longer do without Europe, not the other way around.
Without its participation in the dynamics of European integration, France’s financial rating would be even lower than it already is; it would be unable to finance its ends of the month, and soon even unable to maintain its pension system and social model.
And yet, all French political parties refuse to acknowledge this. When it comes to criticizing the European Union, they’re all there. When it comes to recognizing that it is a formidable asset, and accepting its constraints, there’s no one left.
Today, the French are Europe’s stowaways, and they claim to be laying down the law on a ship without making the necessary efforts to keep the ship moving.
Of course, there are intolerable things in the European Union. First of all, it’s unacceptable that we should be obliged to import goods, particularly foodstuffs, that we are forbidden to produce. This should be the rule. Just as it should be the rule that we should not accept immigrants into the Union without a strong, common integration policy. Only, to have a chance of getting such rules passed at EU level, France would have to have a strong voice, i.e. healthy public finances and a large foreign trade surplus. This is not the case. And no party, extreme or otherwise, is seriously proposing the means to achieve this.
On the contrary, everything is being put in place so that, after the next presidential elections, there will be a moment of truth, which will be painful for everyone. But don’t blame the rest of the world. And especially not the European Union. Just denounce our incorrigible capacity for procrastination.
For the governing parties to regain their say, and for one of their representatives to have the slightest chance of being elected in 2027, these parties would first have to openly proclaim themselves “pro-European”, at a time when at least three predators are preparing to butcher us. That they recognize that this is not a dirty word or an insult, but an essential dimension of the French project, and that they draw programmatic conclusions on the constraints and opportunities that this opens up for us.
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