One of the countless things that can be blamed on the French ruling class over the last ten years at least, if not much longer, is its inability to clearly explain the issues to the country, to educate, to explain the constraints and the reality of the democratically possible choices. This failure is not unique to the political class. It also applies to many teachers, journalists, business leaders, trade unionists and all those who inform public opinion and propose solutions.

Having failed to do so, in a calm, poised and consensual manner, we now find ourselves in lunar debates on absurd, incoherent, infinite proposals, coming from all benches of the Assembly, from all unions and from supposedly competent teachers. In a suicidal, murderous verbal one-upmanship in which facts have no place. And yet, everyone should know at least the following twenty facts. Undeniable facts that are absolute constraints and essential priorities for public action. Make no mistake. What follows are facts. Not opinions. And it is on the basis of these facts that we can and must form our opinions, make proposals and take action. Here they are:

1. On January 1, 2025, France’s total population was estimated at 68.6 million, of which around 5                 million were legal foreigners and just under a million illegal.

  1. The French population is hardly growing at all, and its median age in 2025 is 42.8. In 2024, life expectancy at birth is 80.0 years for men and 85.6 years for women.
  2. At age 65, men can expect to live 10.5 years without disability, and women 12 years.
  3. The share of French GDP spent on preventive health care has been falling since at least 2023, and is lower than in many other developed countries such as Canada.
  4. In 2040, the French population is unlikely to exceed 71 million, and the median age will be over 47. Ageing will be due to declining birth rates and immigration.
  5. Ageing will weigh on growth: in 2040, French GDP will be around 2% lower than it would have been if the country’s demographic structure had remained as it was in 2018.
  6. In 2025, public spending will represent 57% of French GDP, the highest ratio in the world, along with Austria and Denmark (excluding Ukraine, where it exceeds 75%).
  7. In 2040, with unchanged policies, French public spending will increase by 2 points for pensions and healthcare, and even more for military spending.
  8. At the current rate, French public and private spending on social protection will continue to grow faster than national wealth; in 2040, 34 to 36% of GDP will be devoted to social protection (compared with around 31% in 2025).
  9. In 2025, the rate of compulsory deductions (taxes + contributions) in France will be around 46% of GDP, the highest rate among OECD countries.
  10. France has the highest marginal income tax rate in the world (55%), on a par with Finland, Denmark and Austria.
  11. By the end of 2025, French public debt will exceed 3,400 billion euros, or more than 115% of GDP. To this must be added 260 billion euros of total debt linked to social protection systems.
  12. In 2040, at the current rate, French public debt will reach at least 6,150 billion euros, or 121% of GDP; and if the environment deteriorates, it will exceed 8,000 billion euros, or 140% of GDP. Long before that, the debt will be infinite.
  13. In the PISA education ranking, by the OECD, France comes 26ᵉ in mathematics and 29ᵉ in reading comprehension.
  14. The average gross salary of a French teacher is 50% lower than that of a German teacher (30,000 euros in France versus 45,000 in Germany).
  15. Only 35,000 engineering degrees are awarded each year in France, compared with 110,000 in Germany, whose population is only a third higher.
  16. For the first time in its history, France now imports more fruit and vegetables than it exports. And that’s tragic.
  17. France ranks sixth in the European Union for gender equality.
  18. Social mobility, however measured, is declining in France, unlike in many other European countries: In France, it takes an average of six generations for a child from the poorest 10% to reach the average income, compared with 2 to 3 generations in Nordic countries.
  19. The annual cost of weather-related claims to French insurers has risen from €1.5 billion a year to €6 billion a year, and is set to double in the years ahead.

These facts are not reflected in almost any of the speeches made by elected representatives, whether on the right or the left, the extreme left or the extreme right. Even less in their programs, which, in any case, don’t exist.

When you know all this, when you’ve really internalized it, you understand both the constraints and the urgencies; you realize that you can’t ask much more of French taxpayers, and that you have to do much better with less money entrusted to public entities. We understand that the priority, the one that should be shared by all, should be the search for efficiency, the elimination of duplication and waste, the hunting down of stowaways, so numerous and so harmful to the success of all, the improvement of democratic functioning and social justice, without spending a single euro more.

If, on the contrary, we continue to live in denial of reality, if we fail to realize that we’re heading for the wall at high speed, if we believe that trusting one or other of the two extremes will solve the problem, on the pretext that they’ve never governed before, we’ll all be very disappointed. And we’re in for a rude awakening.

All this is such a gigantic undertaking that it should occupy everyone’s mind from now on. In particular, the minds of all those in Parliament who are today debating the next budget.

 

Image: Alfred-Henri Bramtot, Universal suffrage, 1891, Lilas town hall.

 

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