It is just much easier to forecast good news than bad ones; for good news occurs rarely by chance and is most often the result of long efforts; even if in general we cannot give any indication as to the date of their occurrence. It is generally known well in advance when a fortunate development will occur. The only good news that is really unpredictable, probably the most important one, is works of art. And still.
While bad news (sometimes predictable, such as layoffs, some conflicts or famines) generally occurs by surprise, without notice: it is easier to destroy than to build; to do harm than good; to kill than to give life.
Finally, good news for some (social benefits) is sometimes bad news for others (taxes). And yet, we are far more fascinated by dangers than promises; by threats
than hopes. Because bad news is information; while good news is stated in general well in advance: the commissioning of a bridge, a building, a TGV line, or the implementation of a legislation are known well in advance. This is not the case for a tsunami, a terrorist attack, or a disease.
Just to mention the very little good news that will likely occur in 2013. For the world, we can expect countless new versions of mobile devices that have invaded our lives; a decrease in the price of oil and gas, due to the development activities of shale gas; the opening of the new World Trade Center in New York; the commissioning of an amazing high-speed rail in
Japan; the opening of the first railway tunnel under the Bosphorus in Istanbul, connecting Europe and Asia. It is not totally excluded either that some progress be made in the fight against non-communicable diseases, (which are the most deadly today), in the control of greenhouse gas emissions or in those of the cores of nuclear reactors in Fukushima. Not impossible either to expect the interruption of the tragic civil wars in Syria, Kivu and elsewhere; that progress be made in Iran after its elections in June, towards a peaceful solution; and that progress be made towards a mutual recognition of Israel and Palestine.
For Europe, efforts made towards its consolidation may lead as soon as 2013 to the strengthening of the Eurozone policy; and a drop in the value of the
euro can foster growth there.
For France, renewed growth by year-end is not excluded; an agreement on job flexibility can lead to a calling into question of waste in lifelong learning and a shift in unemployment. It is not forbidden either to hope that we understand the tremendous potential represented by shale gas under our feet, if development activities are done in an environmentally sound
manner. Finally, some social reforms, not expensive, on the fabric of people’s way of life and the demise of the double mandate, are possible.
For these good news to come true, much remains to be done. And this requires a lot of daring: to have the courage to sow, even though results may be slow to appear, this would be the best piece of news for 2013.
j@attali.com