Often, I find myself expressing our responsibility toward future generations, in many areas, through these pages. And my thought is that if we are not careful, those who will be alive and active in 2050 will curse those who were in 2020, for doing nothing to save them from the hell they’ve entered.
This is not only true for the climate, for public debt, or for lack of control of technologies, in particular artificial intelligence. These issues are still perfectly manageable today, but it will probably not be the case in 30 years.
But there is also another topic that we do not talk about in similar terms: Africa.
Of course, this continent is the topic of conversations when it comes to demography, poverty, war, or migration. But do we see that the dynamic that is installing itself there is deadly for the world, and especially for Europe?
In 30 years, Africa will have more than 2 billion inhabitants. Though it is likely that a middle class and a well-to-do bourgeoisie will have developed there, it is also certain that, if current trends continue, more than one billion of its inhabitants will suffer severely from various shortcomings: water, food, education, healthcare, housing and employment.
There will also be many more roads, trains, cars, trucks, trains, seaports and boats, airports and planes on this continent than there are today. Her population will be infinitely more mobile than they already are.
The poorest, as well as the poorer, will therefore have many reasons and means to move to any of the other continents. And if only one percent of them decide to do it every year, 200 million Africans will try this adventure in a decade.
Asia will then be a continent experiencing full growth and America will remain coveted. But it is most likely that Africans will turn toward Europe: we are, and will still be, the richest continent, offering the best quality of life; and also the closest, geographically. As such, every year, several million Africans will try to come to Europe.
What will happen then? What will happen even before this situation arises?
Will the magnificent reaction of the Spanish people sustain an influx of one hundred, two hundred or 2000 boats that are equivalent to the Aquarius? The German and Italian people, so welcoming at the beginning, could not sustain this and became hostile. The French people already are, without even having been as generous as these neighbours.
Europe will then probably try to close itself to Africa. Our fleets of war, which will drive back those who will try to cross it, will constantly patrol the Mediterranean.
Some will find this situation ideal: Africans, they will say, will be forced to take control, manage their fate, and develop their internal market. And the Europeans will stay among themselves.
But, very quickly, they will be disillusioned by the consequences: Because, we will not be able to maintain balanced relationships with these countries, and we better not hope to obtain their raw materials or sell them our products anymore. They will turn to China and we can say goodbye to these formidable markets and to the Francophonie project.
Moreover, Africans will react by finding ways to circumvent these prohibitions; and unless these boats with migrants are bombed, more and more of the will continue to pass. All in all, Europe will lose its soul, democracy will not be sustained, the standard of living of Europeans will be at stake, and we will be at permanent war on our borders.
To avoid this disaster, we have no other solution than to understand, as soon as possible, that it is in our interest to massively develop this neighbouring continent, to help speed up its demographic transition as quickly as possible; to organize the welcoming of migrants from inside the continent; and to create the conditions in our countries for a temporary or lasting welcome and integration into our cultures (that they will take home if they return) of millions of people coming from this cradle of humanity.
And not only in our football teams.
J@attali.com